HDB Resale Prices Fall Despite Record Sales Surge

HDB resale prices slipped 0.1% in the third quarter of 2026, even as transaction volumes surged 19.5% to 7,645 flats, with million-dollar deals hitting a record 596 units.

The moderation in prices marks the first decline since the start of the year, according to the latest statistics published by HDB.

Policy Shifts Fuel Transaction Surge

Sales of five-room and larger flats jumped 26.7% quarter-on-quarter to 1,867 units, while executive/multi-generation flats saw a 41.6% increase to 545 transactions. These larger flats accounted for 31.6% of all resale deals in the quarter, the highest proportion since the 15-month wait-out period was implemented in September 2022.

Eugene Lim, Key Executive Officer at ERA Singapore, attributes the trend to growing buyer confidence in a cooler market.

The removal of the wait-out period coincided with the absence of a Build-To-Order (BTO) sales exercise in the third quarter, according to Lee Sze Teck, Senior Director of Data Analytics at Huttons Asia. This created a window where demand for existing flats intensified, particularly among private homeowners seeking to downsize without restrictions.

Million-Dollar Deals Reach Record Highs

While overall prices have softened, million-dollar HDB transactions shattered previous records. The 596 deals in the third quarter marked the first time the quarterly total exceeded 500 units. From January to September, 1,497 such transactions were recorded, a 20.4% increase year-over-year.

According to Mohan Sandrasegeran, Head of Research & Data Analytics at SRI, the persistence of demand for million-dollar flats reflects their appeal: larger living spaces, prime locations, and proximity to amenities and transport. These flats, however, remain a niche segment, accounting for just 7.8% of all resale transactions.

Executive flats saw a notable jump, with transactions rising from 93 in the second quarter to 146 in the third. Their distinct layouts and larger floor areas compared to standard flats heighten their desirability, particularly in established estates with mature infrastructure.

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Regional Price Trends and Flat Type Performance

Median resale prices for three-room flats reached $540,000 in Punggol and Sengkang, marking the highest levels among all towns. In the four- and five-room segments, Queenstown and Ang Mo Kio led with median prices of $1.065 million and $995,500 respectively. These figures highlight the premium commanded by flats in established areas with mature infrastructure and amenities.

Quarterly price movements varied across regions. Hougang recorded the largest increase for four-room flats, rising 12.4% from $720,500 to $809,900. Pasir Ris saw a 2.3% uptick in the same segment, reaching $930,000. Serangoon topped executive flat sales with a median price of $1.13 million, while Geylang experienced significant gains, with three-room prices jumping 8.2% to $387,500 and four-room prices rising 8.1% to $767,500.

Mature Estates and Younger Flats Drive Million-Dollar Transactions

Million-dollar HDB transactions rose steadily from 348 deals in 1Q2025 to 490 in 2Q2026, with 596 recorded in 3Q2026. Mature estates dominated the market, accounting for 88.6% of all million-dollar deals in the quarter, totaling 528 transactions. Toa Payoh led with 93 transactions, followed by Queenstown and Bukit Merah at 86 and 56 deals, respectively.

Resale flats aged 15 years or less made up 50.2% of million-dollar transactions in 3Q2026, with those aged 26–35 years following at 18.3%. Among $1.5 million-plus deals, 69.2% involved flats younger than 15 years. These younger units, primarily five-room and executive flats in prime areas like Bishan and Toa Payoh, are favored for newer conditions and extended lease terms.

Median prices for three-room to executive flats showed minimal movement quarter-on-quarter, while the four-room segment maintained a median price of $628,000, nearly unchanged from the previous year. The prevalence of younger, well-located flats highlights their sustained market appeal despite broader price moderation.

Supply Forecasts and Market Outlook

PropNex Realty projects annual resale transactions between 26,000 and 27,000 units, with overall HDB resale prices expected to remain flat or ease by approximately 0.5%. The steady supply of flats exiting their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) will continue to support the market, with MOP flats projected to rise from 6,973 in 2025 to 18,939 in 2027.

The average price of million-dollar flats reached $1.16 million in Q3 2026, a 1.1% increase from the previous quarter. Non-mature estates accounted for 11.4% of such transactions, the highest proportion ever recorded. These trends suggest a niche but growing segment of the market, driven by younger flats with modern amenities and longer remaining lease terms.